Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Randizzles:NFL Opening Week Betting preview and more
NFL Opening Week Betting preview and more by Randizzle Value is the Key Not just for underdogs! There are many games in the NFL when taking the favorite is the more Value play. You will hear many people say I only take favorites in the NFL and you will also hear many people say I only take Underdogs. In the NFL everyone has their preference but if you only stick to one or the other you CAN'T and WON'T show a profit by seasons end. You have to think one step ahead of the odds-makers. Being in touch with many different *Sharps & *Linesmakers this summer has many advantages. If you need some help this football season than I am your man. 5-Year plan Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week #1 are just 33-48-7 ATS (41%). This of course implies that roadies on the blind are a 59% winning proposition during this time. Jo public has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week #1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player. Who let the Dogs out? Favorites are just 35-49-11 ATS in Week #1 the past five NFL seasons. This means that underdogs bark at a 59% clip. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and -6 1/2 are only 10-18 ATS (35%) during this time. The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 25-39-3 ATS (39%) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 8-17 ATS (32%) in Week 1 games the past five seasons. Playoff teams from prior year It might surprise you (it did to me) to learn that playoff teams from the prior year vs. non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 17-27-3 (39%) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 9-15-1 ATS (37%) during this time. The oddsmakers will intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them. This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 10-16 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999. ~~NFL Week 1-Lines & Thoughts~~ Tennesse vs Pittsburgh (-6) (Ov/Un 35) This is obviously a good spot for bettors to try to find some value, especially when you have a public team like Pittsburgh opening the season on National Tv & coming off a *Super Bowl with a lot of hype. Ben Roethlisberger is in the midst of some legal problems , that might pose a distraction & he looks as if he could not say "NO" at the dinner table this off season-But with all that said i still think that in the NFL , you win with a big time defense & a pounding running game & we all know the Steelers have both of those key quality's , going into this matchup. The Steelers defensive line & blitz packages will give the Titans alot of trouble up front, Harrison/Farrior & company walked into Tennessee late last year and totally outplayed them upfront & i think we just might see some more of that dominance by the black & gold come Thursday. When your a bettor the most important thing to do is look at line play (Offensive & Defensive lines) & QB play before making a decision on what side or total you will be laying your hard earned cash down on. Now onto the Titans , this team was the best team in the AFC last year for the first 10 Weeks & then they just looked real flat going down the stretch, they let the Ravens smash them in the mouth & walk out of Tennessee with a road playoff win. The Titans to me are a solid group all around (Solid Offense-Solid Defense-Solid Specials), all solid but nothing great.....Oh but wait they actually have 1 great key thing in there arsenal-Coach Jeff Fisher! Yes that's right i am saying that Coach Fisher is actually the biggest factor the Titans have on gameday, Coach Fisher is by far in my opinion the most underrated Coach in the NFL , he has never won a super bowl (Yes i know) but in my clear view , he has made average teams year in year out , over achieve - he helped a washed up Kerry Collins, turn his career around & took a roster with 8-8 written all over it & won a division while going 13-3 , to me that says alot about a coach & his worth to not only his team, but also bettors that want to find value in lines when betting on the Titans.
Posted by Anonymous at 12:23 PM