The hotline to Las Vegas takes you inside Week 11 of the NFL season, telling bettors what direction the lines are moving, and by how much.
JETS-PATRIOTS
Patriots –101⁄2: Tom Brady looks like Tom Brady again, and many expect the Patriots to be in an even uglier mood against their hated rivals after Bill Belichick’s infamous fourth-and-2 gamble backfired in a 34-28 loss to Peyton Manning and the Colts.
“I think out here, people were probably more supportive of it than the general nation,” said MGM Mirage race and sports book director Jay Rood, “just because there are so many times you do kick the ball away and a backdoor cover occurs.”
John Avello, director of race and sports operations for the Wynn Las Vegas Casino Resort, said, “Anybody that took [the Patriots] on the money line, they were not happy bettors.”
And, no surprise, the second-guessing made its way to Vegas.
“I’ve never seen any great coach make that decision,” said Las Vegas Hilton Sports Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay.
“If the sharp money comes in on New England, this game’s gonna run big — at least 111⁄2, possibly 131⁄2,” Rood said. “We’re getting nothing but Patriots money. I guess the head coach [Rex Ryan] crying didn’t help get any supporters on the Jets. A lot of the wagering public is starting to give up on the Jets.”
The total opened 431⁄2 and jumped to 45.
“The total’s being bet up based on the defense the Jets have played,” said Sean Van Patten at Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
COLTS-RAVENS
Colts –1: Opened Ravens minus-1.
“Anytime Peyton Manning is outdoors, it takes away a little of the edge for him,” Rood said. “And last week they should have lost. A lot of people are gonna remember that. If you’re gonna shade one way, you shade in favor of the home team.”
Said Kornegay: “It’s not a very good spot for the Colts — short week, emotional win, going on the road against Baltimore.”
But more Manning money is expected.
“I think we’re gonna probably go 11⁄2, possibly 21⁄2 on this game,” Rood said.
REDSKINS-COWBOYS
Cowboys –11: “At this point, it’s nothing but Redskins money early, which continues to be the trend of the year,” Rood said. “Every week we’ve been needing whoever the Redskins play.”
Huh? The Jim Zorn-Jason Campbell-Daniel Snyder
Redskins?
“Statistically their defense plays better than the number, so there’s value in the number,” Rood said.
Avello said he doesn’t believe Ladell Betts replacing Clinton Portis will move the line.
“Eleven-and-a-half is a pretty high number to begin with,” Avello said.
“I think the sharp money will be on the Redskins,” Kornegay said, “thinking that this is too many points for an inconsistent team to give.”
FALCONS-GIANTS
Giants –61⁄2: “I think this is more of a spread to reflect that the Giants need to play good more than it is about Atlanta,” Avello said.
“I can tell you this line is probably inflated at least 2, 21⁄2 points because of [injured Michael] Turner,” Kornegay said, “and it probably would have been more if [backup RB Jason] Snelling didn’t look as good as he did.”
This appears to be the perfect spot for Brandon Jacobs to start rolling.
“I saw [Jacobs] at the weigh-in before the [Manny Pacquiao-Miguel Cotto] fight, and he looked pretty healthy,” Rood said.
Chargers-Denver: No early line because of the uncertainty surrounding Kyle Orton’s availability and the possibility of Chris Simms starting for the Broncos.
“I’m not sure which is better, a healthy Simms or a hobbled Orton,” Kornegay said. “If it’s an 85 percent Orton, you’re probably looking at 21⁄2, maybe 3. If Simms goes in there, 31⁄2, 4.”
Said Avello: “Denver was a team bet heavily [preseason] to go under seven wins. San Diego is a team projected to win
11 games, and they seem to have turned it around. The play’s gonna be on San Diego.”
EAGLES-BEARS
Eagles –3 (minus $120): Rood can see it dropping to 21⁄2.
“We’re getting pretty good Bear money,” Rood said. “I guess this is based on the Eagles’ performance on the road.”
Plus, there’s no Brian Westbrook (concussion).
“Home dog, Sunday night,” Kornegay said. “Not to mention that they’re really popular.”
TITANS-TEXANS
Texans –41⁄2: “It seems like the team that has a week off and is a favorite at home seems to be getting a play. I notice that trend,” Avello said. “There’s also a qualification to this — you’re also a decent team.”
Said Rood: “I think this number’s gonna go up close to Texans minus-6.
“More people will be inclined to bet the team that throws the ball more.”
And the interest here goes beyond the betting lines.
“For fantasy players, it should be a pretty good game,” Kornegay said.
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